The sinking of China’s newest nuclear-powered submarine might seem like a major embarrassment for Beijing, but it’s hardly a reason for the U.S. to relax. While this incident is a blow to China’s rapid naval expansion, history shows us that setbacks like these won’t slow China’s military ambitions for long. Beijing is racing to challenge U.S. naval dominance in the Pacific, and this accident, though significant, is just a bump in the road. The U.S. must view this as a reminder that the race for naval superiority is far from over.
China has long aimed to build “maritime superiority,” especially in the Indo-Pacific region, where it seeks to challenge U.S. influence and assert control over key territories like Taiwan. Nuclear-powered submarines play a central role in this strategy, providing China with a way to counter U.S. naval forces in the region. The recent sinking of their newest submarine might delay their plans, but it’s not going to stop them. China’s response will be predictable: they’ll regroup, repair, and double down on their efforts to expand their submarine fleet.
A critical piece of China’s military growth has always been its willingness to steal technology. When innovation fails, China turns to espionage. This submarine setback is unlikely to be an exception. Over the years, China has systematically stolen or reverse-engineered U.S. military technologies—from missiles to aircraft and naval systems. The more China stumbles, the more aggressive its cyberattacks and espionage become. We should expect that as Beijing works to recover from this incident, its intelligence apparatus will be targeting U.S. defense technologies more intensely than ever.
This is a pattern we’ve seen before. In the past, whenever China has faced difficulties in developing sophisticated military hardware, it has leaned heavily on theft to close the gap. Their submarine program has benefited from reverse-engineering Russian designs and likely U.S. technologies as well. With this latest failure, China may accelerate its espionage efforts, specifically targeting our undersea warfare capabilities. The U.S. must be prepared for an increase in cyberattacks and espionage attempts aimed at naval research and defense contractors.
For decades, the U.S. has maintained a decisive advantage in submarine technology. Our submarines have been quieter, faster, and more advanced than anything China could put to sea. But that gap is closing. China has been steadily improving its submarine capabilities, deploying quieter vessels, and installing extensive undersea sensor networks like their “Underwater Great Wall.” This is not just about catching up to U.S. capabilities; it’s about positioning themselves to neutralize our undersea dominance.
China’s ambitions are clear: they are building a naval force that can challenge U.S. superiority in the Pacific. The sinking of their newest submarine will likely slow them down, but it won’t stop them. They are already producing submarines at a faster rate than we are, and they’re investing heavily in anti-submarine warfare technologies designed to counter our most advanced submarines. The U.S. must take this moment to reevaluate our own capabilities and ensure that we remain ahead in both technology and strategy.
This setback for China doesn’t diminish the long-term threat posed by their growing navy. Their underwater detection systems, combined with new, quieter submarines, are part of a broader effort to challenge U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific. The U.S. cannot afford to be complacent. Our Navy must continue to innovate and expand, especially in areas like anti-submarine warfare, sensor networks, and patrol aircraft. The advantage we hold today could vanish quickly if we don’t invest in maintaining it.
The broader context is clear: China’s naval ambitions extend far beyond this one submarine. Their goal is to reshape the balance of power in the Pacific, and they’re playing the long game. For the U.S., this sinking should serve as a reminder that our technological edge is not permanent. We need to keep investing in our naval capabilities, strengthening alliances with regional partners like Japan and Australia, and ensuring that our Navy remains capable of countering China’s growing influence.
While it’s tempting to see China’s submarine sinking as a victory for U.S. naval dominance, it’s nothing of the sort. It’s a warning shot. The U.S. must recognize that our dominance is not guaranteed, and that China is actively working to erode our advantages. We need to act now, not just to maintain our current capabilities, but to innovate and expand them. The day when China’s submarines can match ours is coming faster than we think, and we need to be ready.
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